In recent days, some white board paper mills in central and East China have issued price increase letter plans to raise 50-100 yuan / ton yesterday. Following the rise of some paper mills in South China and East China at the beginning of the month, the range of the increase continues to expand. These price increases are all small and medium-sized white board paper mills. Can the white board paper market keep up? If so, cardboard box will be increase the cost.
Since March, affected by the weakening demand and the constant tightening of market share, the price of white board paper has continued to decline, and now it is at the lowest point in 2017-2020. Zhuo Chuang data shows that the average weekly price including tax of 250g gray base white board paper of class a this week (May 29 to June 4) is 3685.00 yuan / ton, 930 yuan / ton lower than the highest point in 2020, or 25.16%; 1527 yuan / ton lower than the highest point in 2017-2020, or 29.30%. According to the amount of price increase letter issued by small and medium-sized paper mills, it is 50-100 yuan / ton, and the prices of Jiulong’s bases are temporarily stable. Therefore, the increase of paper mills is exploratory.
The profit of white board paper is constantly squeezed, and small and medium-sized paper mills are on their own
The main reason for the rise of small and medium-sized white board paper mills is profit. According to Zhuo Chuang’s data monitoring, the average price of national waste yellow board paper from April to May was 1802 yuan / ton, down 18.42% month on month, down 17.86% year on year. From April to may, the price of national waste yellow board paper first rose and then fell, and then moved up slowly. However, the price of white board paper has continued to decline, and the profit of paper mills has been squeezed. The price of low-end white board paper has been lowered synchronously, and some small and medium-sized white board paper factories have indicated that the profit has reached the bottom, so it is unlikely to be lowered again.
White board paper demand pressure still exists, which is not conducive to the rise of paper price temporarily
From January to may 2020, the white board paper start-up load rate remained at about 68%, down 5% compared with the same period last year, and in February, due to the delay of resumption of work, the white board paper start-up load rate was only 30%. At the beginning of the year, the production capacity of Fuyang region dropped by 1.5 million tons, and the total production from January to may decreased by 24.49% compared with the same period last year. According to the stock situation of paper mills, as of the end of May, the stock of white board enterprises increased by 5.84% compared with the same period last year. The output of white board paper decreased significantly, but the inventory increased slightly, and the demand pressure remained.
Slow recovery of short-term demand and good development in the long run
On May 27, the National Bureau of statistics released the profit situation of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size from January to April 2020: the total profit of papermaking and paper products industry reached 17.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%; the total profit of printing and recording media reproduction industry reached 8.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.2%. In February and March 2020, domestic demand is limited. During the Spring Festival in previous years, some gift box packaging orders demand peak season, gift giving, visiting, gathering and other scenes reduce or even disappear, which has a certain impact on packaging demand consumption. Since the end of March, the international epidemic has spread, foreign trade orders have been cut off, and the demand for terminal export packaging is weak. The export packaging demand of white board paper is transferred to domestic sales. With the stability of the domestic environment in April and the continuous reduction of the risk level of the epidemic in each province, it will be conducive to the revival of various consumption scenarios. In addition, during the traditional Spring Festival, the activities of visiting relatives and friends will be reduced or the consumption of gift boxes and other traditional festivals will be supplemented after the epidemic is eased. Considering the multi-faceted economic impact in the first half of the year, the subsidy may be limited. In the international aspect, it has been implemented in European and American countries since May With the phased lifting of the ban, although the recovery of terminal export demand is good, the current international situation is still not very optimistic, and the recovery of export trade may be slow.
Swan, scallop mass production, white card instead of white board paper
With the tightening of the demand side, the old issues of whiteboard and white card substitutes have been raised again. The mass production and low price of Swan and Jinbei, as well as the better printing effect than white board paper, are favored by some dealers and terminals, but some terminals are still worried that the price of white card will rise again in the later period. In addition, with the increase of white card production, swan, Jinbei may be the trend of later white card paper factories, and the market share of white card paper may continue to tighten.
Two sessions, prohibition of waste and other news, better than whiteboard Market
On the news side, it is expected that the economic stimulus policies will continue to ferment after the two sessions, or will promote the recovery of packaging demand. In addition, the Ministry of ecological environment held a regular press conference in May on June 2, which pointed out that by the end of 2020, waste paper will basically achieve zero import. Waste paper market reluctant to sell sentiment will gradually heat up, whiteboard cost is expected to increase slightly.
From the perspective of supply and demand, domestic demand has recovered, and the short-term recovery of direct and indirect exports of terminal white board is still limited; from the perspective of substitutes, the mass production and low price of white card substitutes limit the price of white board paper to rise; from the perspective of cost, the price of waste paper is firm, which limits the falling space of white board paper, and the profit margin of small and medium-sized paper mills is expected to improve; and in some areas, the price of white board paper is relatively low, which also exists Pull up the possibility. To sum up, the good support of white board paper is limited, and the rise of small and medium-sized paper mills is a helpless move. Zhuoechuang expects to continue the narrow range shock in June and July, and will slightly increase after August depending on the recovery of exports.